AIDS has appeared in more than 130 countries, and over 100,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in the U.S. alone. More and more, the public will be depending on statisticians to provide answers about the future course of this epidemic. This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of this material -- such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply, an evaluation of survey approaches, and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence -- is not available in any other work.

1. Introduction; 2. Risk Factors for Infection and the Probability of HIV Transmission; 3. Surveys for Seroprevalence and Seroincidence; 4. The Incubation Period Distribution; 5. Cofactors and Markers; 6. Screening and Accuracy of Tests for HIV; 7. Statistical Issues in Surveillance of AIDS Incidence; 8. Back-Calculation; 9. Epidemic Transmission Models; 10. Synthesizing Data Sources and Methods for Assessing the Scope of the Epidemic; 11. Developing and Evaluating New Therapies and Vaccines

Ron BrookmeyerProfessor of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Mitchell H. GailMedical Statistician, Epidemiology and Biostatistics Program, National Cancer Institute

"All in all this is an excellent book for epidemiologists and statisticians. It will help greatly in predicting what might happen in the future and show how one can change the figures as the facts are presented through the years. This is a highly recommended book for all academic and medical libraries." --AIDS Book Review Journal, University of Illinois at Chicago